Wednesday, May 18, 2005
Gross on 10yr Yields and Buffett on Non-Proliferation
Damn interesting day I would say. First Bill Gross pulls a Kirk Kerkorian and reminds the electronic herd and the news media (and myself), who all thought rates had only one way to go, that they don't. 3-4.5% predicted near term for the Ten Year US Bond. Go figure.
If we had to forecast (and we do), we believe a range of 3 - 4½% for 10-year nominal Treasuries will prevail during most of our secular timeframe and that yields on Euroland bonds will be slightly lower due to their structural unemployment problems, disinflationary incorporation of new Central and Eastern European countries into their existing family of nations, and more growth-inhibiting demographics.
Maybe Sam Zell is right on Monday night at
"Paying whatever sum to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons would be the deal that makes it look like we overpaid for the